Vladimir Putin is under increasing scrutiny.
His “special ground offensive” has not gone according to plan. Russia has been losing ground it had occupied as a consequence of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Meanwhile, Russian territories bordering Ukraine have also been shelled on a regular basis.
Furthermore, the Kremlin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” last month sparked widespread concern in Russian society.
President Putin’s response? “Apologies, I made an enormous error by invading Ukraine. It is increased security. Not only in inhabited Ukraine, but throughout Russia.
He’s going all in.
Vladimir Putin has decreed martial law in the four Ukrainian provinces he alleges to have annexed: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
It’s unclear what distinction, if any, that will make: it’s unlikely to convince Ukrainian troops to lay down their arms.
Kyiv is adamant about regaining lost territory. However, the Kremlin leader has stiffened security across Russia by instituting 3 distinct security levels.
A “moderate level of response” has been confirmed in regions close to the Ukrainian border, such as Belgorod, Bryansk, Krasnodar, and Rostov, as well as in annexed Crimea. Among the measures are increased security and public order, as well as restrictions on traffic movement and entry and exit from these areas.
The level below that is “heightened readiness.” This applies to Russia’s central and southern regions, including Moscow. “Vehicle searches and traffic restrictions,” as well as “tighter public order security,” are mentioned in the presidential decree.
In a social media message, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin attempted to convince Muscovites that “no measures will be taken to restrict the usual rhythm of life.” That is yet to be determined.
The rest of the country has the lowest level of security (in effect, northern Russia, Siberia as well as the Russian Far East.)
All regional governors have been directed to establish “operational headquarters” in order to carry out President Putin’s decree. These will consist of the heads of every region, as well as military and police representatives.
Regional governors also have been directed to fulfill the requirements of the Russian Federation’s Armed Forces, other troops, and troop formations.” This appears to give the Russian military more power.
How will this all come together in practice? That may take a while to become apparent.
What is clear is that President Putin’s security system can be utilized by the security agencies to restrict freedoms throughout Russia and mobilize endeavors for the “special military operation.”
And if Russia’s security situation deteriorates, there is nothing to stop regions from being “scaled up” to an increased security level, such as martial law. What does this reveal about Russia’s president? There is no indication that Vladimir Putin is looking for a way out of this crisis. With this decree, we see a Kremlin leader driven to maintain control.
